A worked example that is in profit right now
This same contract is already loaded into the slots above — clear them and build your own.
| Input | P250 | Exchanger ×10 · 2018 Nuke Collection |
| Input cost | $0.86 |
| Outcomes | 3 |
| Best outcome | Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden · $1.79 |
| Expected value | +65.6% |
| Profit chance | 100% |
How the maths works
Ten inputs of one rarity produce a single outcome one rank higher. Every input contributes equally, so the chance of an outcome is the share of inputs from its collection divided by the number of items of the target rarity in that collection.
The wear of the result comes from the average normalised float of the inputs, mapped onto the float range of the skin that drops. The quality thresholds — 0.07, 0.15, 0.38 and 0.45 — apply to the real float, not to the label on the item.
Outcome value is net of the marketplace fee, so the expected value is money in hand rather than a shop-window price.
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Frequently asked
What is a trade-up contract in CS2?
A swap of ten skins of one rarity for a single skin one rank higher. All inputs must be the same quality — normal with normal, StatTrak with StatTrak, souvenir with souvenir. The outcome is random, but the list of possible outcomes and their odds are known in advance, so the expected value can be computed before you commit.
How is the chance of a given outcome computed?
Every input contributes equally. The chance of an outcome equals the share of inputs from its collection divided by the number of items of the target rarity in that collection. Ten inputs from one collection with four possible outcomes give 25 % each; mixed inputs split the odds between collections.
What wear will the result have?
The average normalised float of the ten inputs is mapped onto the float range of the resulting skin. That is why the same items with different floats produce results of different value, and why on skins with a narrow range cheap inputs sometimes cannot reach the wear you want. The calculator recomputes this on every slot change.
Can knives or gloves go into a contract?
No. Knives, gloves and the top rarity of a collection cannot be inputs — there is nothing above them to trade up into. Everything from consumer to classified works.
Where do the prices come from?
From our own database: eleven marketplaces and Steam, live listings with floats. Input cost uses the best offer available, outcome value is net of the sell fee — so the profit shown is what actually stays with you.
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